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March 1998
THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT
Inside:
Mercury Rising
Python’s Progress
Decaffeinated Income |
Chart:
CRB |
The old timers are all in
agreement. When the mob starts to talk about the soaring
markets in terms of a "new era" in investing or "this
time it’s different," look out below. The last time
a new era came around, the Dow had soared past 300 on its way
to 400, twice where it had been a mere eighteen months before
and ten times ahead of where the Bull market started. That new
era came to a crashing halt in October 1929, and before it was
over the Dow would lose 90 percent of its value to close at 41
in July 1932 (a few days after Franklin Roosevelt was
nominated) where it had started the decade that roared.
So the old guard may be
forgiven if it now spends most of the day’s trading hours
perched at the edge of their leather seats waiting for the
current incar-nation of the run-amok Bull to hit the wall of
delusion. In 1982, the Dow was mired at 800, 90 percent below
its current lofty perch. Sound familiar?
Well, guess what? This time
it IS different, for two reasons. First, it has not ended,
yet. That may seem glib, but it is nevertheless true. The
second, and more important reason is this: ever since Hermes
stole Apollo’s cattle, money has been tangible and
tradable; it has fit in the palm of your hand. However, since
Intel, Microsoft and Cisco shoved the Nikkei out of the
catbird’s financial seat, money has become intangible and
invisible. Better still, it moves at the speed of light.
Download this Newsletter, "This
Time it IS Different", in its entirety as a PDF. To
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